This Sunday is the Golden Globes, and the Oscars begin voting the very next morning. It’s the last night before that voting begins that can really influence the Oscars, so here are our predictions for what we think will happen. Just a reminder, the group is made up of less than 100 random people in Hollywood. What happens here can be predictive, but it should not be taken as gospel when it comes to the Oscars. Alright, let’s jump into it.
Best Picture — Foreign Language
Never Look Away
There were a lot of people freaked out that Roma did not make Best Picture drama at the Globes, but because of the show’s rules, it wasn’t possible. Netflix made a calculated risk, ensuring that the film went home with at least one prize on the night. That means there is zero chance they are going to let any other film sneak up on them. Shoplifters, the winner of the Palme D’Or at the Cannes Film Festival, poses a real threat. However, the Globes clearly admire Roma, and with nominations in other categories, it seems poised for a win in the Foreign Language race.
Who Will Win: Roma
Who Should Win: Roma
Who Could Win: Shoplifters
Who Should Have Been Here: Cold War for Girl
Best Original Score — Motion Picture
Marco Beltrami, A Quiet Place
Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs
Ludwig Göransson, Black Panther
Justin Hurwitz, First Man
Marc Shaiman, Mary Poppins Returns
This one is a toss-up, but it feels like Justin Hurwitz can win his third Globe in three years. He won twice on the night for La La Land, and his First Man score impresses. On top of that, Hurwitz gets to represent his film, with Foy feeling like an unlikely winner. However, this one win feels very up for grabs. Desplat, Göransson, and Shaiman all feel like true contenders for the win. All three have Best Picture nominations (Desplat’s Isle of Dogs cannot be nominated for Best Picture because it is animated), and each has an impressive showcase. Shaiman feels like the score that will connect most to the HFPA, and with his first Globe nomination coming last year, he’s had a lot of face time with the group recently.
Who Will Win: Justin Hurwitz, First Man
Who Should Win: Ludwig Göransson, Black Panther
Who Could Win: Marc Shaiman, Mary Poppins Returns
Who Should Have Been Here: Nicholas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk for Beltrami, A Quiet Place
Best Original Song — Motion Picture
“All the Stars,” Black Panther
“Girl in the Movies,” Dumplin’
“Requiem for a Private War,” A Private War
“Revelation,” Boy Erased
“Shallow,” A Star Is Born
“Shallow” continues to sweep the season, and the Globes will be no different. It offers them another reason to give Lady Gaga a prize. Signed sealed delivered. Even so, “All the Stars” really showcases Kendrick Lamar, and let’s be honest, how often will Kendrick show up at the Golden Globes? They could be okay checking off his name if they know they’re going to give Gaga a prize later.
Who Will Win: “Shallow”
Who Should Win: “Shallow”
Who Could Win: “All the Stars”
Who Should Have Been Here: “Sunflower” for “Requiem for a Private War”
Best Screenplay — Motion Picture
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Adam McKay, Vice
Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk looks good for at least one win, and the HFPA might be feeling some guilt after leaving out Barry Jenkins for Best Director. Considering that Beale Street also picked up a Best Picture nomination on the Drama side, and should take home an acting prize, Jenkins could really challenge. However, The Favourite is the right kind of film to win the prize at the Globes. It’s funny, very dramatic, and odd. It feels unlike any other film in the group, and it is insanely vulgar. All of that could work against it, but when awarding writing, that often helps it stand out. However, if it does work against The Favourite, there’s a good chance they are in the mood for simple storytelling, making Green Book a potential spoiler to watch.
Who Will Win: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Who Should Win: Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Who Could Win: Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Green Book
Who Should Have Been Here: Bo Burnham – Eighth Grade for Green Book
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
This group was the toughest to crack, especially without Sam Elliot or Michael B. Jordan in the group. That said, Mahershala Ali and Richard E. Grant represent excellent winners here. The question of which one will take is tricky. There’s backlash against Green Book, so Ali appears weaker. He also didn’t win for Moonlight when he was on his way to Oscar. However, by the same idea, this could be a makeup win for his miss. Meanwhile, Grant represents a strong performance and could be the way to reward the film. Grant also worked the circuit hard, and that often makes the difference with the small group.
Who Will Win: Richard E. Grant
Who Should Win: Richard E. Grant
Who Could Win: Mahershala Ali
Who Should Have Been Here: Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther for Rockwell
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
The race between Adam and King is extremely close as we turn towards Oscar. Even funnier, the two will square off tonight in two different categories. Both are also nominated for Best Actress in a Limited Series or Television Movie. I expect Amy Adams to win that prize for her work on Sharp Objects. I doubt too many voters will want to reward Adams twice on the night, so expect the better performance from Regina King to take the prize.
Who Will Win: Regina King
Who Should Win: Regina King
Who Could Win: Amy Adams
Who Should Have Been Here: Michelle Yeoh in Crazy Rich Asians for Stone (category fraud)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Who are we kidding? This is Bradley Cooper‘s to lose. The actor is also nominated for director, he’s a big star, and A Star Is Born will push hard for the Best Picture win in the Drama category. Cooper winning here also represents his work as the director of A Star Is Born, a prize he’ll likely lose to one of the more established directors. That said, Rami Malek stands a real chance at surprising here. He’s gaining momentum every time the movie gets a Best Picture nomination. That said, the HFPA gave him a pair of nominations for Best Actor with Mr. Robot, and he didn’t win then.
Who Will Win: Bradley Cooper
Who Should Win: Bradley Cooper
Who Could Win: Rami Malek
Who Should Have Been Here: Joaquin Phoenix – You Were Never Really Here for Dafoe
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama
Glenn Close, The Wife
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Rosamund Pike, A Private War
Back in 2016, Lady Gaga inexplicably won a prize from the HFPA for the worst season of America Horror Story ever. If that happened then, why wouldn’t the HFPA give her a prize for being arguably the best part of a potential Best Picture winner? For Gaga’s sake, she needs this. Otherwise, her chances of an Oscar win might dwindle to zero. However, it’s a very tight year. Glenn Close might be the veteran pick, but Melissa McCarthy getting the comedian turned dramatic narrative could be enough to push them over the edge.
Who Will Win: Lady Gaga
Who Should Win: Lady Gaga
Who Could Win: Glenn Close
Who Should Have Been Here: Toni Colette – Hereditary for Rosamund Pike
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy
Christian Bale, Vice
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun
John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie
Christian Bale gives a transformative performance in a movie the HFPA really liked. It’s a towering performance, especially against this group of nominees. You can maybe put Viggo Mortensen into the race for the win, but I’ll put my support behind one Robert Redford. It’s an eclectic choice, someone might buy this as his last film, and he’s freaking Robert Redford. It would be really cool to watch them go for him for the first time in almost forty years.
Who Will Win: Christian Bale
Who Should Win: Christian Bale
Who Could Win: Robert Redford
Who Should Have Been Here: Lakeith Stanfield for Lin-Manuel Miranda
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron, Tully
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
Another race, that if we’re basing it solely on the quality of the performance, should be a landslide. Olivia Colman delivers an all-time performance in The Favourite. She has also proven to be in the good graces of the HFPA in years past, winning for her role in The Night Manager in 2017. That bodes well for Colman, but don’t underestimate the power of being a movie star. Emily Blunt winning for Mary Poppins Returns and she’s also won with the HFPA before. Unlike Colman, she has five other nominations, so clearly they like her. It also doesn’t hurt it’s the only musical performance in the bunch.
Who Will Win: Olivia Colman
Who Should Win: Olivia Colman
Who Could Win: Emily Blunt
Who Should Have Been Here: Correct Category Fraud – Emma Stone for Charlize Theron
Best Director — Motion Picture
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice
The lineup here is a disaster, but Alfonso Cuarón should cakewalk here. Let’s play devil’s advocate though. Cooper could win if A Star Is Born sweeps the night. They could look at Spike Lee as the veteran who is long overdue (his last nomination came from Do the Right Thing). Finally, they obviously love Vice. McKay’s direction is showy, and it could really resonate with the Globes. Ultimately, Cuarón still takes this, but watch out for Spike to grab the prize.
Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón
Who Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón
Who Could Win: Spike Lee
Who Should Have Been Here: Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk for Peter Farrelly
Best Motion Picture — Animated
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
I want to believe that the HFPA is progressive enough to reward Spider-Verse for its brilliance. I doubt that it will though. Instead, they’re likely to go with a more consensus choice. Enter Incredibles 2, a franchise the Globes nominated for Best Comedy/Musical in 2005. This could be a nod to Brad Bird and Pixar, especially considering that The Incredibles finally convinced the group to introduce the Animated Feature category. If a movie could play spoiler, Isle of Dogs could appeal to the international group. Furthermore, Wes Anderson could begin to make the push for an Oscar win, as easily the most overdue director in the group.
Who Will Win: Incredibles 2
Who Should Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Who Could Win: Isle of Dogs
Who Should Have Been Here: None. The Oscars should nominate these five.
Best Picture — Drama
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
The group has some really interesting contenders, and Bohemian Rhapsody proved it’s in the Best Picture race by picking up the nomination here. As scary as that sounds, it shouldn’t win. Then again, it’s here, so who the hell knows. The battle should be down to BlacKkKlansman and A Star Is Born. I’m putting my money on A Star Is Born helping it lead the night in wins.
Who Will Win: A Star Is Born
Who Should Win: BlacKkKlansman
Who Could Win: BlacKkKlansman
Who Should Have Been Here: Widows for Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Picture — Comedy or Musical
Crazy Rich Asians
Mary Poppins Returns
Ignoring the clear category fraud from both Green Book and Vice, both are feasibly on the table to win. The Favourite should win because it is not only clearly the best film in the group, but it should be in contention to win Best Picture at Oscar. However, when you drop down to five movies like you we do here, it’s very possible something swoops into the fray. Both Vice and Green Book are trying to say something about America, and considering this group thought that Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri had something valuable to say, Vice feels like our winner.
Predicted Winner: Vice
Who Should Win: The Favourite
Who Could Win: Green Book
Who Should Have Been Here: Eighth Grade for Green Book
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